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This Little Known Rule May Be the Key To Market Recovery

happy-invetors-wed-thursI’m talking about the “Uptick” rule of course.

In 2007 the government suspended that rule but now they think maybe….just maybe….they made a mistake.
First, what is the “Uptick Rule” and why should you care?

The “Uptick Rule” was put in place by the good folks at the SEC in 1934.  The rule required that if an investor wanted to “short” a stock, he or she could only do so at a higher price than the previous trade.  For example, if a stock was trading at $15, you would have to bid over $15 in order to sell the stock short.   The impact was you could not sell short while a stock was in a free fall.  This was really important.  It made it very difficult for speculators to add to downward pressure of a falling stock.

Let me explain this in plain English.

When you “short” a stock, you are betting that the price of the stock is going down.  So you borrow shares from a broker and then  sell the stock you don’t own (that’s what shorting a stock is) at a high price.  If everything goes as planned,  the stock drops in price and you buy it back.  Then you return the shares your borrowed.  Everybody’s happy.  Again, if you sell a stock short when the price is declining, you are adding to downward pressure big time.  Especially if you are a hedge fund and sell lots of shares short.

Can you guess why the SEC put this “Uptick” rule in place in 1934?  If you said it had something to do with the stock market crash of 1929, you are right.  The SEC put this rule in place to stop speculators from pouring fuel on the fire so to speak.  And the crazy thing about it is, it worked.  It worked for a very long time.

For decades and decades the market was fairly orderly.

But look what happened to volatility as soon as they suspended the rule in July of 2007:

(This is a graph of VIX – its a proxy for market volatility)

vix-resized-ready

Do you see the volatility spike up?  And can you see what happened to the stock market at almost the exact same time?  It started its melt-down – that’s what happened.

I’m not saying that the suspension of the “Uptick” rule is responsible for all the problems in the market.  But it certainly has made a bad situation worse.

A friendly Wealth Pilgrim in Arizona sent me a news item that said that the Congress is considering reinstating the rule and that would be a wonderful thing.   It would probably help stabilize the market.  It sure couldn’t hurt.

What can you do?  Glad you asked.

Please call your Representative today and tell them how important it is to have the “Up tick” rule reinstated.

Oh, and while you’re on the phone, tell them we’re watching them now so they better get it together!

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  1. 3 Comment(s)

  2. By MJR on Mar 12, 2009 | Reply

    Reinstating the uptick rule may help buffet a freefall prices, but even before abolishing the uptick rule there were plenty of ways around it. Put options and inverse ETF’s in particular. Additionally, odd lots were not subject to the uptick rule. I wasn’t aware of that until recently. Nevertheless, the uptick rule was established for good reason, and should be brought back (IMO).

    [Reply]

    Neal Reply:

    This is absolutely true. I agree. The thing that makes me scratch me head is this. While the folks arguing NOT to reinstate say this, when you review the chart, it looks like the volatility did spike as soon as the rule was lifted. No arguing that.

    [Reply]

  3. By Bob Burg on Mar 13, 2009 | Reply

    Neal, according to your post, it sounds like the regulation enacted by the federal government in the early 30’s was actually a good thing. Imagine that; a government rule that . . . worked. Well, that is one for the books. I guess I can no longer argue that all government regulation in the marketplace is a bad place. Darn. :-)

    Your fan (in spite of having my bubble burst),

    Bob

    [Reply]

  4. By Neal on Mar 13, 2009 | Reply

    Great issue Bob. I will now be forced to write a post on this. Its actually a bit more complicated than I suggested……stay tuned.

    [Reply]

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